Tag: Elections

Buying Votes on Credit

elianehb

By Peter Shannon, M.A. Economics, Queen’s University

Ontario’s 2018 budget was released March 28, projecting an unanticipated deficit of $6.7 billion for the 2018-19 fiscal year. The 2017 budget projected that Ontario was on track for consecutive balanced budgets and indeed, Ontario ended a 10 year string of deficits with a $642 million surplus in 2016-17. [1] Given the province’s rapid growth and low unemployment in recent years, tighter fiscal policy seemed imminent. However, pre-election promises of free childcare, expanded prescription drug coverage and increased health care spending will push Ontario back into red ink this year. [2]

The political motivations of Ontario’s 2018 budget are clear: with the June 7 election looming, Premier Wynne’s Liberals are attempting to replicate the success of their federal counterparts. Like Justin Trudeau in 2015, the Ontario Liberals are promising to run a series of deficits to expand social programs, with an emphasis on families with young children, seniors, and mental health. [2] Both governments display a shift in focus from net debt levels to debt-to-GDP ratios as a measure of sustainability.

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Be scared of politicians who refuse to disclose information

John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy (JDI)

Game theory makes a clear prediction about when people will disclose information, and when they will keep it hidden. The prediction: they will disclose their information when it is better than others expect, and they will refuse to do so only when it is worse than expected. Game theory says that Clinton will choose not to release her speeches, and Trump will choose not to make public his recorded conversations or tax returns, only if they are worse than their voters anticipate.

By Christopher Cotton, Queen’s University
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How long campaigns can make candidates more extreme

John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy (JDI)

By Christopher Cotton, Queen’s University

An except from an article published in The Washington Post.

As the 2016 U.S. presidential hopefuls begin announcing their candidacies, Americans are readying themselves for more than a year and a half of political campaigning.  That’s a long time. Long enough to perhaps cost $5 billion.

There are benefits to a long campaign season. As Calvin Coolidge said, “The purpose of a campaign is to send an intelligent and informed voter to the ballot box.” Campaigns may help inform voters and enable them to develop more accurate assessments of the candidates. Long campaigns have the potential to do this even more effectively.

But there is also a downside. In a new article (ungated here) Raphael Boleslavsky and I show that informative campaigns can also decrease the incentives for candidates to moderate their views. In other words, more informative campaigns encourage polarization between politicians, which tends to make voters worse off.

Keep reading at The Washington Post